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Vinnie
BerichtGeplaatst: Zo Okt 07, 2007 11:10    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

that is certainly possible, look at connect-4 where among beginners yellow has a clear advantage but among top players reds advantage is overwhelming.
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W84Me2WinOffline
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Geregistreerd op: 20-4-2005
Totaal berichten: 157
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BerichtGeplaatst: Zo Okt 07, 2007 17:43    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

Vinnie schreef:
interesting game, but I have a feeling black gave away his win only around move 45 or so and could have kept his lead.... if I would have to pick a side in move 43 I would definitely pick black. I wonder what w84me2win thinks about this... whether he saw this coming or whether he thinks it's a late mistake by black


I think the game was decided much earlier. I have to admit that I didn't expect to win. The long jump (move 16) took 9 moves. I knew it was very risky but I had to try it. I couldn't use the analyze-applet, because the starting position was the old one. So it was a little bit of a guess there. I thought I would only win back around 6 moves and at that point I couldn't see if it would be more. It was a game that teached me alot, mostly the things Mark already mentioned.

I might add here that I think a game like this won't occur alot with the new starting position, because white can't occupy the main diagonal that easy anymore. Cool
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MarkSteere
BerichtGeplaatst: Zo Okt 07, 2007 19:21    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

The same kind of situation can develop on a smaller scale and be just as effective. You just need a few of your checkers holding a few of my checkers prisoner, anywhere on the board, not necessarily from the main diagonal, and that's all you need to win sometimes.
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winterklaas
BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Okt 08, 2007 18:14    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

sorry, I haven't read everything yet.

I'm not experienced enough to judge about white's advantage in the begin of the game.

I agree with blacks advantage at the end play (in normal draw-situations, white has to commit suicide first)

in total, I don't know which colour has advantage, but I prefer black at this moment.

increasing board size ain't a solution in my opinion. a larger boardsize means more ways to escape from agression, which increases the advantage of black.

conclusion:
introducing draws (black needs to have a none-suicide move after white's death) is an option. But at this moment there's not enough evidence for the need of it. I suggest to decide later about htis option when there are players who master this game almost completely.
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MarkSteere
BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Okt 08, 2007 20:01    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

winterklaas schreef:
sorry, I haven't read everything yet.

I'm not experienced enough to judge about white's advantage in the begin of the game.

I agree with blacks advantage at the end play (in normal draw-situations, white has to commit suicide first)

in total, I don't know which colour has advantage, but I prefer black at this moment.

increasing board size ain't a solution in my opinion. a larger boardsize means more ways to escape from agression, which increases the advantage of black.

conclusion:
introducing draws (black needs to have a none-suicide move after white's death) is an option. But at this moment there's not enough evidence for the need of it. I suggest to decide later about htis option when there are players who master this game almost completely.


Draws will never be an option in Dipole. I simply don't release games or approve variants of my released games in which draws (stalemates or ties) can occur. The draw rate in Chess is around 60% among the most expert players, or so I've read, and the draw rate among the best Checkers players is nearly 100%, again so I've read. Chess and Checkers are unusual in that you have to become extremely expert before draws dominate (ruin in my opinion) the game. That's not always the case in modern games. The draw rate in a newly created game can become nearly 100% after a few months of advancing skill. There's just no way I'd release a game in which draws can occur, knowing that an ever increasing draw rate can destroy a game after a few months or years of advancing skill.

Regarding the effect of a larger board size, let me try to clarify what I was trying to get across earlier. When hypothetical Dipole experts move up to a 10x10 from an 8x8 they will have about 50% more squares to work with. The game tree will be much, much larger. Whatever move order advantage existed in the 8x8 will be dramatically reduced. So by way of illustration, one conceivable scenario would be this: Among ten year veterans of 8x8 Dipole Black has a ten percent advantage. When the same players use a 10x10 board, Black only has a two percent advantage.

Yes, the 10x10 creates more avenues to escape and it also creates more possibilities for aggression. I do play on a 10x10 at other game sites occasionally. The major difference, at least for me as an advanced beginner, is that it's a longer game - too long. I really prefer the 8x8 at this point. Other than taking longer, it seems a little more complex but the 8x8 is complex enough for me as it is. I don't feel the need for more complexity than can be found in the 8x8, at least not now as an advanced beginner.

Winterklaas, I can see that you share this notion with Vinnie that Black can effortlessly maintain his initial lead throughout the course of the game. Once again I think a comparison to Chess is in order. In Chess, White starts with the advantage of being on the offense while Black is on the defense, an advantage to White since White controls the game, at least in the beginning. The same reasoning applies to Dipole although it's complicated by the fact that White is running out of distance sooner than Black.

You also have to keep skill level in view. Chess beginners playing White will lose the momentum of their initial advantage. The consequences of their big mistakes throughout the game will overshadow the effects of the initial first move advantage. Halfway through the game White's having moved first won't have any bearing whatsoever on his advantage in the game.

Chess experts playing White will be able to carry their initial advantage much further into the game. But even for experts, that initial advantage is going to wear thinner and thinner with each passing move. In the beginning White is totally on the offense and Black is totally on the defense. Well into the game, that's different. Black has come forward with some offensive tactics and White has had to respond defensively. Yes, who gets to move first does have a major impact on the game among experts, but it's a long way from a guaranteed win for White. If White were really able to maintain his initial offensive dominance all the way through the game without any degradation, it would be an automatic win for White. If White had the same degree of offensive advantage at the end that he had at the beginning he'd easily win every time.

Initial advantages of various types degrade throughout the course of the game. They degrade at a slower rate among experts but they still degrade. The longer the game (eg when playing on a 10x10 vs an 8x8), the more degradation occurs. The only game in which initial advantage doesn't degrade is Nim, which isn't really a game once you know the secret.
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MarkSteere
BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Okt 08, 2007 20:51    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

This is the first in a series of five games between me and Vinnie:

http://www.jijbent.nl/dipole/show.php?gamenumber=5919374

I'm very sure that no single game is going to prove anything relating to move order advantage. It's going take a statistical analysis of thousands of plays of Dipole to provide any real information. I suppose one could write an AI program to play itself quickly thousands of times, but that wouldn't necessarily be convincing. Different programs play differently and it would be really difficult, if not impossible, for a program to simulate human play between players with various combinations of skill levels.

At least for the moment however, Dipole seems to have eluded the fabled "easy win for Black" flaw. Personally I thought Black resigned prematurely but that was Vinnie's decision to make, not mine.
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Vinnie
BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Okt 08, 2007 21:21    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

You played that game very well. It taught me a lot and showed that white indeed has some things to go on. I'm curious how the rest of the series turns out.

Unfortunately it's 2-0 for you now that I let a 4-stack get captured early in the game. I'm not giving up just yet though Wink
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MarkSteere
BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Okt 08, 2007 21:40    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

Don't worry about it. Personally I'm not assigning any level of importance to any of these games or to the match. So far most of the games among beginners, which we all are, are decided by sheer luck. The "oops" moves really determine the outcome. There's a lot of good strategy going on in between the oopses but if I make one major oops and you make two major oopses, I win.
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MarkSteere
BerichtGeplaatst: Wo Okt 10, 2007 7:27    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

I've had time to mull over the "Easy Win for Black" strategy and I think I can now present a simple, convincing argument as to why it's a bad strategy. First to summarize what the strategy is: Basically Black starts out in the lead in the sense that his "distance" is equal to White's distance in the initial setup and larger than White's distance after White's first move. ("Distance" is the total distance all of your checkers would have to go to jump off the far end of the board.) The idea is for Black to only make moves which result in Black having a distance equal to or larger than White's distance.

Two major problems with this strategy:

1. The best available move for Black isn't always going to be one which results in a zero or positive lead over White. Sometimes Black's best available move will be one which drops Black from a positive lead to a negative lead.

2. White could make a backward capture, increasing his own distance to be larger than Black's distance. Black then might not have a move available which would cause him to equal or overtake White again.

Now consider a modified "Easy Win for Black" strategy. Here Black always chooses a move which maximizes his lead over White, whether a positive lead or a negative lead. Problem 1 still applies: Black's best available move will not always be one which maximizes his lead over White.

If White plays perfectly and Black uses either one of these "Easy Win for Black" strategies, White will win.
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